Call me an optimist, but it is always of interest to see where “experts” believe the recovery will begin.  This information comes from the Herman Trend Alert and seems to make simple sense to me:

When considering where the new jobs will come from, remember that there are two kinds of small businesses: those without employees (or non-employer businesses), and those with paid employees (or employer businesses). The US Small Business Office of Advocacy estimates that in 2008 there were 23.1 million non-employer and 6.1 million employer businesses.

When the economy struggles, the number of non-employers tends to increase at higher rates, while the number of employer businesses stagnates or declines. Going into business for themselves (becoming non-employers) has been a lifesaver for an additional 1.7 million individuals and their families.

However since most of these non-employers work only part time, we are most interested in employer firms. In the aftermath of the 1991 downturn, firms with 20-499 employees led employment expansion, while the smaller- and larger-size businesses struggled. During the 2001 downturn, larger firms (500 or more employees) experienced the greatest net employment losses, followed by firms with 20-499 employees. The smallest firms, with fewer than 20 employees, weathered that storm better than the others.

Expect small- and medium-size businesses and the services that support them to lead the economic recovery worldwide.

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