9.3 to 9.7%

That’s right, that is the expectation for the 2010 unemployment rate from the Federal Reserve based on this abcnews.com story.  I find that number shockingly high, but it is realistic.

Then there is this bit of information from Reuters (emphasis mine):

Speaking at American Economic Association’s mammoth yearly gathering, experts from a range of political leanings were in surprising agreement when it came to the chances for a robust and sustained expansion:

They are slim.

Many predicted U.S. gross domestic product would expand less than 2 percent per year over the next 10 years.

The depressed economy combined with the high unemployment numbers has started to change my thoughts about the impending employee shortage.  As the Baby Boomers exit the workforce, there may not be an immediate need to replace them on a one-to-one basis.  The potential length of this recession combined with the dramatic increases in productivity (leveraged by technology) seems to point to a needed exit of the Boomer generation.

One shift we are seeing in our business is a disinterest in hiring inexperienced salespeople.  The surplus of experienced, effective, established sales candidates has placed the typically younger sales candidates in an unenviable position.  The ramifications of this trend may have an impact on the sales talent pool in the next decade.

Sales is a profession that requires experiences to develop skills which is why it cannot be taught effectively in a classroom.  The trap many hiring companies fall into is a belief that the sales candidate needs to have specific experience in their industry.  Although desirable, the better approach is to have experience in a similar sale that has allowed them to develop and hone transferrable skills.

That being said, a remarkably high unemployment rate will have a negative impact on sale hiring in the younger generation.  That depressed hiring trend will force younger candidates into other fields creating a sales talent void over the next decade.

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I received an email recently from someone I presume to be a salesperson looking for work.  Obviously this is a common occurrence these days, but here is the error in the delivery – the email had no writing.  Yup, it was just a blank email with an MS Word attachment that appeared to be a resume.

This approach is a wasted effort in today’s world.  I never opened the attachment for fear it may be some malicious, virus-infested computer-killer.  Dramatic, I know, but the point is valid.  It is similar to a phone call that comes in on your home phone at night and lists nothing more than “Out of Area.”  I wonder who it may be, I think about answering it, but I usually let it go because I suspect it is a telemarketer.  The same approach grips me with these types of unknown, unsolicited emails.

My standard operating procedure is to simply delete them an move on.  I am certain if that was a legitimate email, the person did not intend for this outcome.  This seems like an obvious point – take the time to write something for a cover email.  This salesperson’s approach leads me to make assumptions about his technique and abilities based on the clumsiness of his first contact.

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This is a new trend, I think:

As unemployment numbers hit historic highs, “pink slip” parties are popping up in big cities around the country. Hundreds of axed employees are going to happy hour meet-and-greets, where one can enjoy a drink and discuss career prospects with eager recruiters.

People are finding creative ways to stand out above the pack. In order to get a job in this economy, people have to get out there. And while there are no guarantees of gaining anything more than good conversations and a few contacts, some pink slip attendees have had success in finding new employment. Pink slip parties offer those on the prowl for jobs a chance to share information among themselves.

“If you take your network and compare it to the network of a total group, you get access to more people – if you can help each other, it’s a win for everyone,” said John Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Pink slip parties are just one extension of social networking.

That is from the Career News newsletter.  Quite the creative idea as long as the parties include the “eager recruiters.”

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CNNMoney.com provides this article regarding 2009 hiring.  As you may expect, hiring is down and it appears more cuts are coming soon:

Of the 31,800 employers surveyed, only 15% anticipate hiring more employees during the second quarter, down from 16% in the first quarter and 26% in the same period last year.

About 14% expect a decrease in their payrolls, up from 13% last quarter and just 9% one year ago. Another 4% said they were undecided about their hiring intentions.

The net employment outlook, or difference between employers who plan to add jobs and those who expect to cut them, was 1%, down from 3% in the previous quarter and 17% in the year-ago period. That’s the lowest net employment outlook since the recession of 1982.

But what of those 15% who anticipate hiring more employees?

Alternatively, employers in construction and leisure and hospitality anticipate increased hiring as compared to the first quarter, Manpower said.

Only employers in transportation and utilities said they plan to keep hiring levels relatively stable for the second quarter, according to the survey.

Those industries would be a good place for jobseekers to look right now.

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If you have noticed a decrease in hiring topics of late there is a reason why…few companies are hiring.  We have seen it affect our business too.  We had an early glimpse of it last year around Q2 as our assessment business started to decline gradually.  That is a painful path to go down as you try to figure out a way to counteract the trend.

At any rate, companies are still purchasing assessments and some are still hiring.  Yes, it is true despite what you see in the media.  As you might imagine, there is some serious talent available to companies that have the wherewithal to hire right now.

One item I was contemplating was a sales candidate’s selling system or lack thereof.  When hiring salespeople, you are best served by hiring candidates who have a selling system.  It may not be your selling system, it may need adjustment, it may frighten you – whatever the case, you are wise to weigh this factor when making your hiring decision.

Generally speaking, salespeople who have some semblance of of a selling system think strategically when dealing with prospects.  This approach helps to neutralize the stereotypical desire of salespeople to schmooze.

Have you ever interviewed a sales candidate who believes they are a strong salesperson because of their rapport-building abilities?  That is an important ability, but it is painful when it is the end of their skill set.  You ask questions and never receive clear answers.  I’ve seen interviews degrade into pure frustration.

This economy requires greater skill, not greater schmoozing.  Prospects are slow-moving and price sensitive.  If you are hiring salespeople, ask them specific questions about their system for approaching, qualifying and closing new customers.  You will learn volumes.

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It just doesn’t seem so difficult to figure this out, but candidates keep using their personal email addresses that seem to date back to their college days.  Of course, there wasn’t email when I was in college…different story.

Here is one I came across today:

shovelhead@yahoo.com

Unbelievable.  Instead of considering his candidacy, I am left with thoughts of the potentially peculiar shape of his head.

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I like to say that people are the ultimate variable – there are almost limitless possibilities, variations, surprises, etc.  One aspect of hiring that often gets overlooked is motivation.  In sales, money is the common, assumed motivator.  In many cases this is accurate, but money motivation can manifest itself in different forms.  Our website illustrates some subtle differences between motivators.

Selling Power has an article that speaks in slightly more general terms.  I think these 4 are quite accurate in terms of my own interviewing of candidates.  The second one is quite prevalent amongst Gen Y:

• Situations. This usually doesn’t have anything to do with the actual job, says Radin. It’s something outside of the job that creates the need to make a change. Situational motivators could be a long commute, a spouse transfer, or that the company dropped its health benefits.
• Opportunity. If a candidate is at a job and there is something that she really wants to do – a new responsibility or working with a new technology – and it’s not and will never be available at her present job, it could be a motivator for change. Ask, “What is it that you want, that you will never get at your job now?” and you’ll discover an underlying motivator.
• Dissatisfaction. If there is something happening at work that’s driving a candidate crazy and it won’t change, it could be enough to prompt a job change. For example, if the owner of the company is the driving force behind something that is bothering the person, it may never change and the candidate has to realize that and move on. However, if the candidate had his proposal refused or doesn’t get along with his officemate, this person could be looking for a new job out of impulse. This is where the hiring manager has to recognize that the motivator isn’t real, as it’s something that could be resolved, and therefore isn’t a real reason to change jobs. The hiring manager’s job is to figure out the real motivators.
• Money. On a professional level, money typically doesn’t come into play unless it materially affects a person’s lifestyle or self-esteem, says Radin. “Offering professionals more money to take your job is usually a losing proposition,” he says. “The incumbent company can just match that and 95 out of 100 times, the person will stay where he is if there aren’t other considerations motivating him. When it comes to money if you get in a bidding war, it’s not going to make the difference. I’ve worked with candidates who have taken pay cuts because the new job addressed other needs.

That last one is a bit foreign to us in sales recruiting and assessing, but I think it is still valid.  I also believe that money discussions are more smoke than anything else in an employment discussion.  Typically there is more to the decision than just money whether the candidate reveals that information or not.

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ManageSmarter has a great article titled, The Ideal Job Candidate: Myth or Reality? that touches on a subject that we have posted on many times.  I cannot begin to tell you how many conversations we have around this subject with clients and prospects.  Jeff Schmitt has 3 points he writes about when it comes to hiring.  As a a hiring manager, I would recommend that you keep these points in mind as you begin a hiring process:

1. Examine yourself. Look at your recruiting effort. Are you still reposting that same job description after another fruitless round of interviews?  Unfortunately, this doesn’t change one element: the problem is you haven’t adapted. You are still holding on to your unreasonable expectations.
2. Revise your expectations. Too often, we reduce candidates to cardboard cutouts. We specify predetermined years of experience in certain roles in certain industries. Maybe it is time to step back and examine those expectations.
3. Support new hires. To reap these rewards, you need a strategy. Pinpoint the learning curve and initial challenges this hire will face—and mitigate them. Provide ongoing training and mentoring for support. It was a grueling process to bring this hire into the fold—have a plan for developing and retaining this asset. Too often, we are looking for a right fit at the start. We don’t recognize that an employer-employee relationship is no different than marriage, requiring two committed partners willing to work, grow and persevere through adversity and disappointments.

Very seldom are you going to find the ideal candidate for the position so setting the expectations early in the process is a must.  Too many times experience working in the industry is viewed as the great differentiator in determining who is a good candidate and who is not.  Yes, candidates with experience will have all the right lingo for your industry, they will have an understanding of your product and of your customers/prospects, but this has to be weighed against the bad habits they may bring with them too. 

The author gives these suggestions when looking at your expectations:

• People Skills and Charisma
• Track Record of Success
• Creative Thinking and Problem-Solving
• God-Given Talent
• Enthusiasm and Energy
• Technical Knowledge
• Cultural Diversity
• Life-Long Learning

This is a great starting point, but in sales I recommend that you take this further by defining your sale.  Start by looking at how a typical sale goes down in your company.  Think of it this way – if you can’t understand how one sale is made, how can you expect a salesperson to do it repetitively.  Here is an article that will start you down the right path to understanding your sale and helping you set realistic expectations for your next salesperson.

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The frequency of layoffs has started to rise as the economy continues it’s slow progression (no, it hasn’t recessed).  Up here in Minnesota we have experienced some large layoffs recently.  But there is an interesting point in all of these layoffs when it comes to salespeople.

Many times the underperformers are released first as a method for upgrading the sales force.

One of the large corporations up here announced a sizeable layoff that reduced their employee count by 5%.  Yet, the following week they had multiple employment ads on multiple sites looking for different levels of salespeople.  This approach is not surprising as you will see it often during slow economic times.  The major companies use the cover of a slow economy to jettison salespeople who have had targets on them for some time.

This fact means that all sales hiring today needs to be careful.  There are strong salespeople who get cut loose, but you have to have a process to find them.  The pretenders, the salespeople who can do enough to mostly hide on your payroll, are also out there.  These salespeople are more difficult to identify and screen out of the candidate pool.

It is imperative that you have a process that goes far beyond resume, interview, gut-level decision.  If you need assistance, we can help.

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A headline from the Wall Street Journal – Employer Alliance Aims To Streamline Recruiting.  “Streamline” is one of those overused business terms that I find annoying.  Yet, the article is rather interesting:

Seven of the nation’s largest employers have teamed up to help one another with recruiting. They’ve formed a consortium called AllianceQ, which allows them and future members to share information about job applicants they don’t hire.

Which leads to this:

Since QuietAgent.com doesn’t feature job ads, professionals will only learn about career opportunities if employers contact them.

By giving out referrals to QuietAgent.com, AllianceQ members are helping job hunters they don’t hire find employment elsewhere, says Jason Kerr, chief executive officer of Chicago-based QuietAgent Inc., which publishes both QuietAgent.com and AllianceQ.com.

Which inevitably leads to this:

In the second quarter of 2009, QuietAgent.com plans to launch a new marketing campaign aimed at getting more small and midsize employers to use it. The campaign will focus on the site’s new relationship with AllianceQ. “We’re going to use the brand power of big businesses to offer small businesses a way to recruit,” says Mr. Kerr.

The idea seems like a strong leverage point if small businesses can benefit from the large corporations’ vast recruiting efforts.  Keep an eye on this one.

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