I think it is safe to say that predictions in this economy are difficult AT BEST to make accurately.  However, CareerBuilder has come out with their Q4 hiring forecast that contains some interesting information:

HIRING IN Q4 2008

Going forward, 23 percent of employers plan to add full-time, permanent employees in the next three months, a slight decline from the previous quarter. Ten percent plan to decrease headcount while 63 percent anticipate no change and 4 percent are undecided.

I always find the “no change” group as being rather esoteric - I assume that means no expansion or contraction.  But what of replacement?  If their company has normal attrition, will they replace them?

The large and medium companies continue to lead in hiring trend:

Twenty-seven percent of employers with more than 250 employees plan to add full-time, permanent positions in the fourth quarter compared to 26 percent of those with 51 to 250 employees and 16 percent of those with 1 to 50 employees.

The economy continues to be a mixed bag despite the reports of impending financial apocalypse.

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Here is a trend I have not heard of recently (emphasis mine):

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports about 45 percent of U.S. job openings through 2014 will be in the hidden middle-level job sector, most of them technical jobs that cannot be outsourced.

Mid-level means middle management, right?  Ok, maybe not.  Nonetheless, I still have not heard of this trend until reading this short excerpt from The Career News newsletter.

And one last piece of information to offset a popular misnomer:

Charted on a graph, the image of a robust technician economy belies a popular misconception. Most assume the job market is heaviest on the low-end of the spectrum and the high-end. The Bureau of Labor statistics says 33 percent of job openings involve occupations requiring a high degree of skills, while 22 percent of the jobs are in the low-skill category, the report said.

I know, “high degree of skill” is a fuzzy phrase.  The article refers to this type of job as requiring more than a high school diploma but less than a college degree.

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From Justsell.com’s daily newsletter:

Looking to build long-term wealth? According to a recent salary.com survey*, the best American cities in which to build wealth include:

• Plano, Texas
• Aurora, Colorado
• Omaha, Nebraska
• Minneapolis, Minnesota
• Albuquerque, New Mexico

I don’t know about that fourth one.  The way they tax up here makes me think otherwise.  New York City came in last place out of 69 major cities so maybe this information is accurate.

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If you think of the obstacles that have been thrown at our economy over the past few years (oil prices, housing market, credit crunch, ongoing war, etc.), you start to appreciate just how resilient it is.

When you work in the recruiting space, you pay close attention to the economic trends, especially the leading indicators, since hiring is a lagging indicator.

This ERE.net post caught my attention as it deals with an insightful excerpt from Jonathan R. Hefferlin regarding the latest jobs report:

There is renewed economic clatter with unemployment up by 0.2 to 5.7%, like there was a couple of months ago when it rose from 5 to 5.5%. We know the real number is higher, not counting folks whose benefits ran out before then found a job (an estimated + 4 million), which makes the true figure closer around 8%.

Betcha didn’t know that government stats only count those who are currently collecting unemployment and looking – a reported 1.6 million last month. 570,000 more, forced into part time work against their will, aren’t counted.

For all these shortcomings, you could at least use the 5.7% as an indication, until recent months. The entire rise from 5% can be attributed to the extension of unemployment benefits by three months, earlier this year. Had this not happened, the number we have learned to watch and love would be still 5% or less, as folks who used to be dropped off the rolls after six months are still counted.

Clarification might be found in lost jobs – 85,000 a month in Q1 vs. a recessionary 180,000 rate in 2001; 59,000 during Q2, and only 51,000 jobs lost in July, which was the 1st month in eight previous numbers weren’t revised downward. So the economy, which grew at a 1.9% rate in Q2 (0.5% of that $78 billion in stimilus (sic) checks thru June) vs 1% in Q1, proved amazingly resilient to $4.50 gas, $5 diesel, the credit implosion, and housing bubble.

If the plunge in oil prices continues, coupled with a weak dollar and the surge in bargain repoed home buying, the employment picture should continue to show some signs of hope.

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You ever notice what a mixed bag of economic news we receive these days?  Here is one that caught my eye from CNNMoney.com (my editing):

The private sector gained 9,000 jobs in July, primarily among small businesses and the service sector, according to a report payroll manager ADP released Wednesday.

A consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a loss of 60,000 non-farm jobs.

Can you imagine if the “consensus of economists” bet on football games?  They would be making their predictions from the poor house.

Nonetheless, I heard a very interesting talk from John Sumser last week in which he discussed that national employment statistics are grossly overrated (my term).  His thesis is that economies are regional, even local (look for the “Mega-Region slide).  Weakness in one area (e.g. Detroit) is far different than growth in another area (e.g. Las Vegas).  Trying to combine these two into a national number is a statistic for national newspapers to use, but it truly does not have any application locally.

I couldn’t agree more.

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The economy is slow right now, but to call it a recession at this point is hyperbole.  Inc.com has a quick story on a survey of small-business owners.  The survey sample is small, but the results are encouraging.

Though many in the small-business sector remain concerned with broad economy conditions, a growing number of owners and employees are upbeat about activity in their own market, a new survey finds.

Of 500 small-business owners and employees recently polled by Opinion Research Corporation, a Princeton, N.J-based database firm, 65 percent rated their firm’s business conditions as good, while less than a third described them as poor. Though 71 percent said the U.S economy was struggling, 50 percent expect it to recover in a year.

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This story from Forbes.com provides a survey with a simple, but insightful structure:

To compile its list, Jobfox examined its database of about 4,000 job postings from November 2007 through July 2008 to see which professions have the most openings monthly.

Ok, so what did they find?

Sales representatives top the list–and, unlike other professions, not because there’s a shortage. Rather, in tough economic times, a good sales force is a critical way to pull a company out of a downturn.

I like to say that good salespeople are always in demand no matter what the economy is doing. 

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The layoffs that have occurred in this weak economy have led to a larger percentage of overqualified candidates responding to lower-level positions.  We are presently seeing this effect in our sourcing efforts.

Clearly some companies that are looking to cut costs are laying off experienced salespeople who have 1.) higher salaries & benefits and 2.) are not delivering top-end numbers.  That’s not to say they are not being successful, but they are performing at a level where a financial decision maker may decided to release them.

This downsizing happens frequently to sales departments in weak economies.  The follow up move is this - hire a younger, less expensive salesperson for the same role.  This financial decision assumes similar production from the younger salesperson in the role.  Big assumption, but sometimes worth the risk.

What this means for a hiring company is that there will be some “deals” in the marketplace right now.  Some overqualified salespeople may be available for your open role.  Yes, there is a chance they are just going to ride out the economy and then look for a better job.  But I think the rewards outweigh this risk.

Now, I’m not talking about bringing in a VP-level to a telemarketing role.  A slightly overqualified candidate at a slightly higher pay level is often a good investment.  They tend to bring a broader skill set that you can hire at a discounted rate in this economy.

There is a caveat in this approach - you need to ensure you hire a salesperson with the right blend of skills, talents and motivations for your specific role.  This is an area in which we can help.

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The frequency of layoffs has started to rise as the economy continues it’s slow progression (no, it hasn’t recessed).  Up here in Minnesota we have experienced some large layoffs recently.  But there is an interesting point in all of these layoffs when it comes to salespeople.

Many times the underperformers are released first as a method for upgrading the sales force.

One of the large corporations up here announced a sizeable layoff that reduced their employee count by 5%.  Yet, the following week they had multiple employment ads on multiple sites looking for different levels of salespeople.  This approach is not surprising as you will see it often during slow economic times.  The major companies use the cover of a slow economy to jettison salespeople who have had targets on them for some time.

This fact means that all sales hiring today needs to be careful.  There are strong salespeople who get cut loose, but you have to have a process to find them.  The pretenders, the salespeople who can do enough to mostly hide on your payroll, are also out there.  These salespeople are more difficult to identify and screen out of the candidate pool.

It is imperative that you have a process that goes far beyond resume, interview, gut-level decision.  If you need assistance, we can help.

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I’ve been reading through many sales employment ads recently and am seeing a trend - the ads are written tighter.  A couple of examples:

-Minimum of 5 years of related public accounting and/or corporate sales

-A minimum of two years’ business development experience in a pharmaceutical and/or CRO biotechnology, or drug development company.

Nothing wrong with this approach since the candidate pool is still relatively large due to the slow economy.  One thing to be sure of - the labor pool will tighten up again soon.  At that point, it is wiser to move these requirements into preferences and look outside of your industry for transferable skills.

One interesting point - the aforementioned examples are from companies that recently laid off numerous employees.  This is a common approach for large companies.  They tend to purge a certain number of employees during slow times.  Wall Street is more accepting of this news and it is a good time to upgrade certain positions.

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