9.3 to 9.7%

That’s right, that is the expectation for the 2010 unemployment rate from the Federal Reserve based on this abcnews.com story.  I find that number shockingly high, but it is realistic.

Then there is this bit of information from Reuters (emphasis mine):

Speaking at American Economic Association’s mammoth yearly gathering, experts from a range of political leanings were in surprising agreement when it came to the chances for a robust and sustained expansion:

They are slim.

Many predicted U.S. gross domestic product would expand less than 2 percent per year over the next 10 years.

The depressed economy combined with the high unemployment numbers has started to change my thoughts about the impending employee shortage.  As the Baby Boomers exit the workforce, there may not be an immediate need to replace them on a one-to-one basis.  The potential length of this recession combined with the dramatic increases in productivity (leveraged by technology) seems to point to a needed exit of the Boomer generation.

One shift we are seeing in our business is a disinterest in hiring inexperienced salespeople.  The surplus of experienced, effective, established sales candidates has placed the typically younger sales candidates in an unenviable position.  The ramifications of this trend may have an impact on the sales talent pool in the next decade.

Sales is a profession that requires experiences to develop skills which is why it cannot be taught effectively in a classroom.  The trap many hiring companies fall into is a belief that the sales candidate needs to have specific experience in their industry.  Although desirable, the better approach is to have experience in a similar sale that has allowed them to develop and hone transferrable skills.

That being said, a remarkably high unemployment rate will have a negative impact on sale hiring in the younger generation.  That depressed hiring trend will force younger candidates into other fields creating a sales talent void over the next decade.

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