According to this CNNMoney.com article, 2010 hiring will be steady and growing (emphasis mine): “We see a healthy expansion under way, although it will take time to reduce economic slack and repair damaged balance sheets,” said Lynn Reaser, president of the National Association for Business Economics, which conducted the survey of 48 top economic forecasters in late January and early February. I wonder if those are the same “economic forecasters” who are perpetually surprised by the latest economic news? Nonetheless, I don’t mind a little positive outlook during this recession: The NABE panelists expect that jobs will return slowly this year, forecasting an average monthly increase of 50,000 jobs in… Read More
Continue ReadingLoan Out Your Employees
Now this is something I have not seen yet – loaning out your employees during slow periods. Inc.com provides the article: How it works: On the StaffShare website the “seller” company lists the employee’s skills, daily rate, and availability. The cost is £50 (roughly $81.70) a year per candidate. The “buyer” company searches the database, uses the website’s message system to vet candidates and iron out details with the seller, and then a contract is sent electronically. The background behind the idea: “The companies had these redeployment pools of 1,000 people who needed to find other work within the company,” Flaxton says. “So we thought, ‘What if there was a… Read More
Continue Reading2010 Unemployment
9.3 to 9.7% That’s right, that is the expectation for the 2010 unemployment rate from the Federal Reserve based on this abcnews.com story. I find that number shockingly high, but it is realistic. Then there is this bit of information from Reuters (emphasis mine): Speaking at American Economic Association’s mammoth yearly gathering, experts from a range of political leanings were in surprising agreement when it came to the chances for a robust and sustained expansion: They are slim. Many predicted U.S. gross domestic product would expand less than 2 percent per year over the next 10 years. The depressed economy combined with the high unemployment numbers has started to change… Read More
Continue ReadingA Real-World Economic Prediction
This story from abcnews.com carries some weight in terms of a real economic forecast. It isn’t good: More of America’s largest companies will shrink their staffs than will hire in the next six months, according to the latest survey of their CEOs. Nineteen percent of the CEOs expect to expand their work forces, while 31 percent predict a decrease in the next six months, according to a quarterly survey from the Business Roundtable released Tuesday. That’s slightly better than the 13 percent who expected increased hiring three months earlier. At that time, 40 percent forecast cuts. Granted, the trend is good, but the actualities are not. 2010 is shaping up… Read More
Continue ReadingWhat Is Gen U?
“Generation Unretired” according to this BusinessWeek.com article. That is a new term to me. According to the article: The AARP says that 8 out of 10 baby boomers will work part- or full-time past retirement age. That’s 64 million unretiring Americans, the biggest demographic shift in the American workforce since WWII—and 93% of the growth in the American labor market from now until 2016, according to the Pew Research Center. This trend is one that has been in the making for some time. The current recession and housing bubble burst has only exacerbated the trend. Clearly there will be new management techniques needed to handle the Gen U employees. The… Read More
Continue ReadingWhen Will It End?
The Great Recession roars on during this holiday season. Our company is focused on sales hiring, both assessing candidates for our customers and running full recruiting processes. The hiring outlook is of great importance to us and a topic I try to track closely. That being said, this abcnews.com article provides a mixed bag (emphasis mine): The November outlook by the National Association for Business Economics, which is set to be released Monday, shows economists expect net employment losses to bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Employers are seen starting to add to their payrolls after that. I would be more comforted by these economists if I… Read More
Continue Reading‘Help Wanted’ Has Become Obsolete
Isn’t that the truth? Here are some sobering points from a CNNMoney.com article: Businesses with fewer than 50 employees cut another 75,000 workers in October, according to estimates released Wednesday from payroll processor ADP. … A telephone survey of 830 small business owners conducted by management consulting firm George S. May International from Oct. 28-30 found that 74% of the owners polled do not plan to increase their staff headcount in the next 90 days. It has been our experience that sales hiring typically slows down during the holiday season, but companies often discuss their Q1 hiring plans with the intention of a fast start to the new year. Unfortunately… Read More
Continue ReadingJobless Recoveries
Jobless recoveries is an all-too-frequent phrase in our modern economy. The 3.5% growth in 3rd quarter GDP is a bit misleading as the government poured money into the economy (cash for clunkers, first-time home buyer program, etc.). The hiring trend continues to be abysmal as somewhat expected as it is a lagging indicator. But is it becoming more of a lagging indicator? This article from Commentary Magazine makes an observation I haven’t heard elsewhere (emphasis mine): The underlying reason for increasingly jobless recoveries in recent decades can be found in Chart 5 of the New York Fed’s report. In the early 1980s, 51 percent of industries were undergoing structural change… Read More
Continue ReadingDon’t Trust The Dow
I have heard many cheerleader reports attempting to claim the recession is over and the recovery has begun. I’m not so certain especially when these people note the stock market as the leading indicator. This article from CNNMoney.com explains why this cheerleader approach is flawed (my bold): Several experts point out than many of the relatively strong earnings reports helping to lift the markets in recent days are being driven by cost cuts, rather than strong revenue growth that would be a better indicator of consumers and businesses being willing to spend again. If businesses keep cutting costs to make the numbers that Wall Street wants to see, that can… Read More
Continue ReadingSpin Defined
From a CNNMoney.com article this morning (emphasis mine): Private sector employment fell more than expected in September, but the pace of job losses continued to slow, according to a report released Wednesday. Automatic Data Processing, a payroll-processing firm, said private-sector employers cut 254,000 jobs in September, down from a revised 277,000 in August. It was the smallest monthly total since July 2008. The decline was greater than the 200,000 loss economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast. But the difference was “not statistically meaningful,” according to Joel Prakken, an ADP spokesman and chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. “Not statistically meaningful” – tell that to the 54,000 people who lost their job… Read More
Continue Reading