Jobless recoveries is an all-too-frequent phrase in our modern economy. The 3.5% growth in 3rd quarter GDP is a bit misleading as the government poured money into the economy (cash for clunkers, first-time home buyer program, etc.). The hiring trend continues to be abysmal as somewhat expected as it is a lagging indicator. But is it becoming more of a lagging indicator? This article from Commentary Magazine makes an observation I haven’t heard elsewhere (emphasis mine): The underlying reason for increasingly jobless recoveries in recent decades can be found in Chart 5 of the New York Fed’s report. In the early 1980s, 51 percent of industries were undergoing structural change… Read More
Continue ReadingOptimism Defined
The epitome of optimism – a headline from abcnews.com: Has the Recession Finally Ended? I guess you could characterize this as “talking up” the economy. Here is one paragraph from the article that made me laugh (emphasis mine): Today also brought some positive news from the much-battered retail sector. For the first time in three months, retail sales in May rose, by 0.5 percent, according to the Commerce Department. The sales were pushed higher by increased demand for new cars and sales at gas stations. It was the largest increase since sales rose 1.7 percent in January following six straight monthly declines. While this is good news, part of the… Read More
Continue ReadingThe Pain Of A Lagging Indicator
Hiring, that is, and it appears that it is going to be an even rougher road over the back half of 2009. If you are in the recruiting, hiring, assessing business you are aware of this fact. 9.4% unemployment is remarkable. From abcnews.com: The percentage of people without jobs in this country is now at the highest point in nearly 26 years. Every month since January 2008 we have seen jobs disappear. So far the economy has shed 6 million jobs since the recession started push (sic) employers to start handing out pink slips. I’m still looking for the report that lists the number of jobs “saved” by the stimulus… Read More
Continue ReadingWhy Is Economic News Always Surprising?
Isn’t this an old marketing trick – include “surprising,” “stunned,” or “unexpected” in a headline? It seems to me that every time an economic report comes out, we are presented with one of these words to describe the data. The latest example comes from cnnmoney.com today: U.S. construction spending unexpectedly posted its biggest increase in eight months in April, advancing for a second straight month as the private sector put money into both residential and nonresidential projects, according to a government report on Monday. Oh to be able to surprise a sales manager with an unexpectedly lower sales forecast! If the experts are consistently surprised, what credentials do they have… Read More
Continue ReadingThe Economy Has To Be Bad
The economy is not in good shape right now, but the economic reporting by the “mainstream” media is abysmal. For instance, this article from CNNMoney.com shows the writer working hard to present the positive data are really being gloomy. The opening sentence sets the table for the writer’s theme: Stores and online merchants were busier this weekend than they were a year ago, according to figures out Sunday, but signs persist that holiday shopping will suffer in the weakest economic climate in decades. Unfortunately, facts are stubborn things (my editing): The National Retail Federation (NRF), an industry trade group, said shoppers spent $41 billion in the 4-day Thanksgiving weekend. The… Read More
Continue ReadingThe Resilient Economy
If you think of the obstacles that have been thrown at our economy over the past few years (oil prices, housing market, credit crunch, ongoing war, etc.), you start to appreciate just how resilient it is. When you work in the recruiting space, you pay close attention to the economic trends, especially the leading indicators, since hiring is a lagging indicator. This ERE.net post caught my attention as it deals with an insightful excerpt from Jonathan R. Hefferlin regarding the latest jobs report: There is renewed economic clatter with unemployment up by 0.2 to 5.7%, like there was a couple of months ago when it rose from 5 to 5.5%.… Read More
Continue ReadingHiring Stats Should Be Localized
You ever notice what a mixed bag of economic news we receive these days? Here is one that caught my eye from CNNMoney.com (my editing): The private sector gained 9,000 jobs in July, primarily among small businesses and the service sector, according to a report payroll manager ADP released Wednesday. A consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a loss of 60,000 non-farm jobs. Can you imagine if the “consensus of economists” bet on football games? They would be making their predictions from the poor house. Nonetheless, I heard a very interesting talk from John Sumser last week in which he discussed that national employment statistics are grossly overrated… Read More
Continue ReadingTightening The Ad
I’ve been reading through many sales employment ads recently and am seeing a trend – the ads are written tighter. A couple of examples: -Minimum of 5 years of related public accounting and/or corporate sales -A minimum of two years’ business development experience in a pharmaceutical and/or CRO biotechnology, or drug development company. Nothing wrong with this approach since the candidate pool is still relatively large due to the slow economy. One thing to be sure of – the labor pool will tighten up again soon. At that point, it is wiser to move these requirements into preferences and look outside of your industry for transferable skills. One interesting point… Read More
Continue Reading“Staycations”
The Herman Trend Alert (sorry, no link) today highlights areas of the economy that are growing, even thriving, during the slowdown. Some you may not have considered: Logistics alternatives to diesel-consuming trucks that are more efficient at moving goods, like railroads, are also doing well. Plus, fed up with increasing delays and cancellations of flights, passengers are choosing rail travel over air. Expect this trend to increase; the US rail lines will borrow experts from Canadian Pacific and Virgin to learn how to deliver extraordinary passenger experiences. Domestic food producers, especially domestic cheese producers are reaping the benefits of the falling dollar. Rapidly rising prices for imported products are prompting… Read More
Continue ReadingDon’t Drink The Kool-Aid
The doom-and-gloom economic reporting continues and as a sales manager it is important to keep a pulse on your team. More articles are being released on the topic of employees getting skittish about their future with the company. Bob Rosner offers some good advice for these employees in his Working Wounded blog: Be careful to not drink the Kool-Aid with coworkers by being hyper-critical about your company’s future. Get an outside opinion. If you work for a public company, talk to a stock broker. A search in our city listed 391 brokers who offer a free consultation. If you work for a smaller company, check with vendors to see if… Read More
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