And The Economy Rolls On
The latest Q4 hiring survey is out, this time from CareerBuilder and USAToday. From the press release with my emphasis:
The survey, titled “Q4 2007 Job Forecast,” was conducted from August 10 through September 4, 2007 of more than 2,700 hiring managers and human resource professionals in private sector companies. “Given the housing slump and tight credit market, caution is to be expected when it comes to hiring in the fourth quarter,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder.com. “While employers are keeping a watchful eye on economic indicators, they are still planning to expand staffs at a steady pace and are actively competing for qualified labor. Forty-four percent of employers said they currently have open positions for which they cannot find qualified candidates.” One-in-four employers (27 percent) report they will add new employees in the fourth quarter. Six percent expect a decrease in staff levels while 62 percent anticipate no change and five percent are unsure.
Don’t you love how every piece of economic news is accompanied by the “housing slump and tight credit market” precursor? We moved 2.5 years ago because we knew the torrid housing market was starting to slow down. 2.5 years ago. These reports characterize the housing slump as if it is breaking news when in actuality it is more like reporting on a glacier’s movement.
I will refrain from launching on the stereotypical economic reporting of the mainstream media and instead focus on the fact that 44% of the surveyed employers have open positions and no qualified candidates. Almost half of the 2,700 companies cannot fill openings today - is it any wonder only 1 in 4 are going to expand hiring this quarter. They can’t fill their open positions today.
This aspect of the story is the story.
The ramifications of this immediate need provides a real threat to the economy. A shrinking labor pool (i.e. Baby Boomer retirement) combined with an expanding economy will put constraints on business growth. I would like to read a story based on that angle and the possible solutions for it.
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Posted By Derrick Moe | Generations, Trends | |
I see the story differently. First, employers and recruiting firms are treating the labor market far more opportunistically than they once did. Employees with the correct skill set are something that you’re supposed to “find,” like the perfect used car with just the desired features & color. Improvisation is now regarded with open disdain.
Second, firms are obsessed with the fear that they’re going to train somebody who will then defect. Perhaps the risks are weighted rationally against the benefits.* Nevertheless, the prisoners’ dilemma as perceived by HR departments seems to be responsible for the de-skilling of the US labor force.
I’m not sure I track your first paragraph-hiring employees with the correct skill set has always been the goal for companies. My belief is that companies over-rely upon experience when making a hiring decision as opposed to skills and talent.
Regarding your second paragraph, we work almost exclusively in sales which affords us some insulation from the retention wars that exist today. A strong salesperson, making good money, is less likely to risk leaving a company to start from scratch somewhere else.