The hiring outlook from the Manpower survey looks far better than a year ago which is a good sign. Although there is weakness in areas, the hiring trend is still positive:
“While overall softness continues in the third quarter, employers are generally not reacting with large-scale payroll reductions,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, chairman and CEO of Manpower Inc. “The gradual slowdown suggests that employers have become sophisticated at anticipating their hiring needs.”
Of the 14,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 26% expect to increase their workforces during the July – September period, while 10% expect to scale back their payrolls for a net employment outlook of 16% (seasonally adjusted 12%). Fifty-eight percent expect no change in the hiring pace, and 6% are undecided about their hiring plans.
I’m not certain why Manpower leads their article with a hiring decrease. The only section I find that supports this view:
Seasonally adjusted survey data indicates that hiring in five of the 10 industry sectors surveyed will decrease slightly during the upcoming quarter compared to Quarter 2 2008 making it the weakest employment outlook since Quarter 4 2003.
Fine, but a year ago the same survey revealed that only 13% of the respondents were going to increase hiring while 7% were going to decrease payrolls. Whatever the characterization, it is a tepid forecast that still contains overall growth – a good sign for a slow economy.