{"id":2135,"date":"2009-10-15T08:25:00","date_gmt":"2009-10-15T13:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2009\/10\/dont-trust-the-dow\/"},"modified":"2009-10-15T09:00:05","modified_gmt":"2009-10-15T14:00:05","slug":"dont-trust-the-dow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2009\/10\/dont-trust-the-dow\/","title":{"rendered":"Don&#8217;t Trust The Dow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I have heard many cheerleader reports attempting to claim the recession is over and the recovery has begun.\u00a0 I\u2019m not so certain especially when these people note the stock market as the leading indicator.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/10\/14\/news\/economy\/dow_economy_forecast\/index.htm?section=money_news_economy\" target=\"_blank\">This article from CNNMoney.com<\/a> explains why this cheerleader approach is flawed (my bold):<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Several experts point out than many of the relatively strong earnings reports helping to lift the markets in recent days are being driven by cost cuts, rather than strong revenue growth that would be a better indicator of consumers and businesses being willing to spend again. If businesses keep cutting costs to make the numbers that Wall Street wants to see, <strong>that can only put more downward pressure on jobs and wages, and result in weaker economic growth or another downturn<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The companies are cutting fat, and in many cases cutting bone and muscle. There&#8217;s no organic economic growth there,&#8221; said Yamarone.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And then there is this crucial fact of which I was unaware:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Another reason that comparisons to Dow levels of a year ago are risky is that two of the more troubled components &#8212; General Motors and Citigroup (<a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/quote\/quote.html?symb=C&amp;source=story_quote_link\">C<\/a>, Fortune 500) &#8212; were dropped and replaced by stronger companies such as Cisco Systems (<a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/quote\/quote.html?symb=CSCO&amp;source=story_quote_link\">CSCO<\/a>, Fortune 500) and Travelers Cos. (<a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/quote\/quote.html?symb=TRV&amp;source=story_quote_link\">TRV<\/a>, Fortune 500) in June.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The recover, when it starts, will take far longer to bring us back to our past levels.\u00a0 My question is this, how many Baby Boomers are going to simply leave the workforce after this extended recession?\u00a0 The rehiring that is sure to occur may accelerate due to the certain lack of candidates.\u00a0 I am hopeful that we see a sling shot of hiring once the corporate world is certain the recover has legs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I have heard many cheerleader reports attempting to claim the recession is over and the recovery has begun.\u00a0 I\u2019m not so certain especially when these people note the stock market as the leading indicator.\u00a0 This article from CNNMoney.com explains why this cheerleader approach is flawed (my bold): Several experts point out than many of the relatively strong earnings reports helping to lift the markets in recent days are being driven by cost cuts, rather than strong revenue growth that would be a better indicator of consumers and businesses being willing to spend again. If businesses keep cutting costs to make the numbers that Wall Street wants to see, that can&hellip; <a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2009\/10\/dont-trust-the-dow\/\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"","bgseo_robots_follow":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[49,2],"tags":[1748,50,1417,248,1331],"class_list":["post-2135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-hiring","tag-hiring","tag-hiring-trend","tag-jobless-recovery","tag-recession","tag-recovery"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Oho-yr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2449,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2010\/10\/a-secondary-effect-of-the-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":2135,"position":0},"title":"A Secondary Effect Of The Recession","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"October 20, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Most people agree that there will be a demand for workers as soon as we start the recovery process (no, I do not subscribe to the idea that the recession ended in June of 2009).\u00a0 Companies are running in a most efficient manner right now due to the fact that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Generations&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Generations","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/generations\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2148,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2009\/10\/jobless-recoveries\/","url_meta":{"origin":2135,"position":1},"title":"Jobless Recoveries","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"October 29, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Jobless recoveries is an all-too-frequent phrase in our modern economy.\u00a0 The 3.5% growth in 3rd quarter GDP is a bit misleading as the government poured money into the economy (cash for clunkers, first-time home buyer program, etc.).\u00a0 The hiring trend continues to be abysmal as somewhat expected as it is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2320,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2010\/04\/good-sign-bad-sign\/","url_meta":{"origin":2135,"position":2},"title":"Good Sign, Bad Sign","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"April 27, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"As is so often the case in this economy, the market is sending mixed signals.\u00a0 From one article on abcnews.com: The economic strength, both in U.S. and international markets, plus cost cuts, higher rates and fuel surcharges led to a 33 percent increase in first-quarter profit. UPS boosted its full-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2068,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2009\/07\/where-the-jobs-will-come-from\/","url_meta":{"origin":2135,"position":3},"title":"Where The Jobs Will Come From","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"July 16, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Call me an optimist, but it is always of interest to see where \u201cexperts\u201d believe the recovery will begin.\u00a0 This information comes from the Herman Trend Alert and seems to make simple sense to me: When considering where the new jobs will come from, remember that there are two kinds\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2173,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2009\/11\/when-will-it-end\/","url_meta":{"origin":2135,"position":4},"title":"When Will It End?","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"November 23, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"The Great Recession roars on during this holiday season.\u00a0 Our company is focused on sales hiring, both assessing candidates for our customers and running full recruiting processes.\u00a0 The hiring outlook is of great importance to us and a topic I try to track closely. That being said, this abcnews.com article\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2300,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2010\/03\/2010-hiring-trends\/","url_meta":{"origin":2135,"position":5},"title":"2010 Hiring Trends","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"March 31, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"From the Herman Group newsletter: According to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Surveys, the US will have a year-over-year increase of about five percent with a record-tying 73 percent of employers keeping staff levels stable. Twelve of the 13 industry sectors surveyed report positive net employment outlooks, meaning employers in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2135"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2136,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2135\/revisions\/2136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<!-- WP Super Cache is installed but broken. The path to wp-cache-phase1.php in wp-content/advanced-cache.php must be fixed! -->