The veterans, burnt by the dot com bust and the post 911 recession will argue that business will contract and layoffs will ensue. That’s the prototypical recession profile. Everywhere you turn, this scenario is forecast or implied.<\/p>\n
…<\/p>\n
Or, there may be a different scenario.<\/p>\n
The people who used loose credit to finance the expansion of their lifestyles may have been unintentional evangelists of a new form of inflation. One way of thinking about the folks who “got in trouble” is that they were wrestling with an unmeasured form of inflation. Because there was no way to engineer the raises required to keep up, the second best source of income was real estate equity. Rather than “large living over spenders”, perhaps these folks were just doing what they thought it took to stay even.<\/p>\n
Although the press is beginning to demonize people who financed their lifestyles on second mortgages, the question is “what are they going to do without a funding mechanism?”<\/p>\n
I think they’ll be asking for raises and when they don’t get them, they’ll be changing jobs<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\nImagine this trend\u00a0in conjunction with\u00a0a mass departure of the Baby Boomer generation.\u00a0 The implications on retention, hiring and\u00a0wages would be beyond significant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I enjoy skewering the mainstream media for “talking down the economy” which is a practice they condemned back in 2000.\u00a0 But all signs point to a slowdown in this red-hot economy which has led the Federal Reserve to target a soft landing. I’m no economist, but I found this article by John Sumser quite interesting.\u00a0 His take on the economy is one I have not heard (emphasis mine): The veterans, burnt by the dot com bust and the post 911 recession will argue that business will contract and layoffs will ensue. That’s the prototypical recession profile. Everywhere you turn, this scenario is forecast or implied. … Or, there may be… Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"bgseo_title":"","bgseo_description":"","bgseo_robots_index":"","bgseo_robots_follow":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[20,23,5],"tags":[49,29,1748,1766,1751],"class_list":["post-1288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-compensation","category-retention","category-trends","tag-economy","tag-generations","tag-hiring","tag-retention","tag-trends"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Oho-kM","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1414,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2008\/02\/whats-hot-in-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":0},"title":"What’s Hot In A Recession","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"February 11, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"More stories are appearing that address \"recession-proof jobs\" in response to our slowing economy.\u00a0 Timely titles for sure, but one position is always recession-proof and that is sales; specifically successful sales. Case in point, Job Hunting in a Recession from The Wall Street Journal: Target critical posts. \"The safest jobs\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Hiring Salespeople"","block_context":{"text":"Hiring Salespeople","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/hiring\/hiring-salespeople\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1678,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2008\/07\/10-most-recession-proof-jobs\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":1},"title":"10 Most Recession-Proof Jobs","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"July 28, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"This story from Forbes.com provides a survey with a simple, but insightful structure: To compile its list, Jobfox examined its database of about 4,000 job postings from November 2007 through July 2008 to see which professions have the most openings monthly. Ok, so what did they find? Sales representatives top\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1389,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2008\/01\/bright-spots-in-a-bad-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":2},"title":"Bright Spots In A Bad Economy","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"January 24, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Yahoo HotJobs has a story out today titled Recession-Proof Jobs in 2008.\u00a0 First, I love this old media trick: Economists at Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley say the U.S. is heading for its first-blown recession in 16 years, and a recent CNN poll found that 57 percent of the public\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Trends"","block_context":{"text":"Trends","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/hiring\/trends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1735,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2008\/09\/psychological-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":3},"title":"Psychological Recession","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"September 19, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"I'm not one to head into a weekend with a downer of a post, but this article from CNNMoney.com is fascinating.\u00a0 The author is explaining how the US economy is not in a recession.\u00a0 The twists begin early with this stat: After all, most of the CFOs questioned in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Trends"","block_context":{"text":"Trends","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/hiring\/trends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2168,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2009\/11\/the-non-employed\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":4},"title":"The Non-Employed","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"November 20, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Every week more numbers come out to reveal another level of ugliness in this economy.\u00a0 Today comes this article from CNNMoney.com.\u00a0 The state that speaks volumes: Every state had an unemployment rate in October that was higher than a year ago, and every state has lost jobs over the course\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1474,"url":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/2008\/03\/benefits-of-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":1288,"position":5},"title":"Benefits Of A Recession","author":"Derrick Moe","date":"March 18, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"BusinessWeek.com offers up a provocative article about the slowing economy - The Upside of Recession.\u00a0\u00a0 Interesting opening: Pop quiz, hot shot: What do MTV, Trader Joe's, and the iPod have in common? Yes, of course, they're all now ubiquitous and make our lives much more agreeable. But to us, the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing","link":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/category\/marketing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1288\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selectmetrix.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}