News From The Twilight Zone

From CNNMoney.com: A jobless recovery? Hardly. By historical standards, the labor market is recovering nicely — job growth has started earlier than in past recessions. I guess I was unaware of how good it is out there.  I think this article comes with a large serving of Kool-Aid also.

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Jobless Recoveries

Jobless recoveries is an all-too-frequent phrase in our modern economy.  The 3.5% growth in 3rd quarter GDP is a bit misleading as the government poured money into the economy (cash for clunkers, first-time home buyer program, etc.).  The hiring trend continues to be abysmal as somewhat expected as it is a lagging indicator. But is it becoming more of a lagging indicator?  This article from Commentary Magazine makes an observation I haven’t heard elsewhere (emphasis mine): The underlying reason for increasingly jobless recoveries in recent decades can be found in Chart 5 of the New York Fed’s report. In the early 1980s, 51 percent of industries were undergoing structural change… Read More

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Don’t Trust The Dow

I have heard many cheerleader reports attempting to claim the recession is over and the recovery has begun.  I’m not so certain especially when these people note the stock market as the leading indicator.  This article from CNNMoney.com explains why this cheerleader approach is flawed (my bold): Several experts point out than many of the relatively strong earnings reports helping to lift the markets in recent days are being driven by cost cuts, rather than strong revenue growth that would be a better indicator of consumers and businesses being willing to spend again. If businesses keep cutting costs to make the numbers that Wall Street wants to see, that can… Read More

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